Straight answers
FAQ
What does a featured pick give me?
The pick itself: which side to bet. If you follow along in the Discord, the notifier also suggests a stake based on 2% of a $1,000 bankroll. What you actually bet is always your call.
Do I have to bet at exactly the opening odds?
The analysis is built on the opening line, so bet as close to it as you can for the math to hold. You do not have to, but the further the price moves from the open, the more of the edge you give back. Sooner is better.
Can I shop for a better price?
Yes. The picks are based on the opening line, but if you find a better number at another book you can do better than the math shown here. Nothing stops you from shopping around.
How should I read the track record?
It is walk-forward backtested 2019 to 2025 and live since Apr 9, 2026. Results are tracked at a flat 1 unit per pick so every pick counts equally, and every pick is logged before first pitch, wins and losses. Over a short window the record swings on variance. See the full ledger.
What is CLV, and why does it matter?
CLV is closing line value: the gap between the price a pick was posted at and where the line closed. Positive CLV means the market moved toward our side after we called it, a sign the pick had real value rather than luck. Because it does not hinge on whether any single game won or lost, it is one of the steadier indicators in the track record, especially over a small sample. You can see it per pick and overall on the history page.
How are featured picks chosen?
Every MLB game is modeled daily. A game becomes a featured pick when the model and the odds disagree enough that the price looks off. That is a subset of the full slate, not every game.
Do you bet these yourself?
Yes. I follow the featured picks with my own money, around $20 a bet.
If the model works, why share it instead of keeping it quiet?
I have a low risk appetite, and my bankroll is not large enough for this to ever be life-changing money. I bet the picks myself, but the realistic upside at my size is modest either way, so there is little reason to keep them quiet.
If it says "entertainment purposes only," what are the predictions actually for?
The models, predictions, and track record are real statistical work, published as analysis and commentary for informational and entertainment purposes. We are not a sportsbook, we do not take or place wagers, and nothing here is a recommendation to bet. If you choose to bet, that decision and any risk are entirely your own. Full disclaimer.
Entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer.